Baccarat百家乐中庄对闲对的概率

一 百家乐中,庄对闲对出现的概率,庄对和闲对的赔率是11:1

  • 运行环境:vscode/windows
  • 运行条件:
  • 开启10个goroutine,每个goroutine循环1000次,也就是一共运行1万次
    每循环1次就是,牌靴中有8副牌[去掉大小鬼,每副牌52张]

从结果来看

1 庄对和闲对概率基本一致
2 按概率6.35来算,15.7次才出现一次对子,假设每次下注额为1,下注16才可以押对一次,获得赔付金额12[包含下注额1],所以,下对子是明显的-EV

运行结果:

Baccarat,8副牌[8*52=416张],庄对闲对统计,总运行次数1w次

统计类别 出现次数 百分比 总手数
庄对 50765 6.30% 805779
闲对 51196 6.35%

二 网络上其他信息资讯

2.1 Baccarat Pair Bet

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/math/35419-baccarat-pair-bet/

这个论坛里的帖子的回复,比较有意思。而且应该是对的,1/17。
我算出来的结果是1/16,和这个回复差一次的概率,很有可能是我运算的样本还不够多导致的误差。

MathCurious,

The probability of a Pair for the Player in one-deck baccarat is 1/17. Naturally, the probability for the Dealer is also 1/17.

You seem to be over-thinking the problem. Pretend the four cards are dealt face-down. Now we look at the Player's first card and see that it is an Ace. So what is the probability that the Player's second card is also an Ace? Well, right now the only information we have is that his first card is an Ace, so the other 51 cards contain 3 Aces, so the probability is 3/51 = 1/17.

Naturally, if the Player's first card is at other card, say a 4, then just like above the pair probability is 1/17.

Note that the Wizard's value of 78/1326 is equal to 1/17.

--the end

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